Blindfoldedmonkey: Anybody is still sceptical about the Bull Market?

Monday 16 September 2013

Anybody is still sceptical about the Bull Market?

Asian markets started this week massively higher, they opened with gap and US futures rose as well. Maybe it happened due to Larry Summers withdrew his name from consideration for Chairman of FED. Many investors considered him to be a candidate who likely cuts back the FED moves to stimulate the economy. I don't know it is real behind or not, what I only know it is genuine bull market. The party is not yet over that is my approach.
Some fact for this morning:

Asia: Hang Seng Index +1.31% , ASX 200 +0.63%, Nikkei +0.12%, Kospi +0.75%
US futures also show strong starts: SP500 futures up 18.3 points to 1,700.30, Dow +168 points to 15,479.

My bet is that the bulls have arrived back after the summer consolidations. All markets across the board on historical highs or pretty close to that levels. I do really think the current bull market — many argues that— it is not over yet. SP500 will be over 2.000? Nobody knows, but we are only 18% from that level.


Normally the markets has four phases in the bullish sentiment:
1.       reluctance
2.       consolidation
3.       acceptance
4.       exuberance

In the history the biggest moves are in phase of Reluctance and Exuberance. So, we are still far from that euphoria. In Bullish Sentiment index of professional investors has fallen to 50% from 67% in this August, while the Individual Investors' poll last week showed a narrow 35%-31% split between bulls and bears. I think this lack of euphoria might help us extending this bull market sentiment.

I love Laszlo Birinyi, President of Birinyi Associates’s quote:

“We still haven’t gotten to the [year] 2000“ level of euphoria, he said. “I think once you get to the point where you have a page-one story, that’s where you get a good surge.” Or maybe when it makes the cover of Time magazine. “That’s what I call capitulation…., which I see at market tops” as well as bottoms, he said. And because we haven’t seen it yet, does that mean the bull market could go on. 


Technically: No comment. It is so bullish just look at  the SP500 chart:


Have a good trading week!

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