Blindfoldedmonkey: Why is the 6 months rule of Forex market?

Tuesday 18 June 2013

Why is the 6 months rule of Forex market?


Honestly for many years I did’nt get this rule. Why is that that 90% of traders  - as the rule says -  losing their whole money on the forex market. I need to make two distictions first. Pro primo, the percentage is worser than 90% I do believe that now, it might be over 95%.  I have a friend who works for a german brokerage company where is the winner trader is rare as a tasty school lunch. Pro secundo, when I started the trading I had thought it only sounds good, only an urban legend which could’nt be true.

I am already spent 10 years in this business, and in the first four years I was in the 90% and after a while I wanted to change my method, because it showed me which I had learned from many books and from different trading coursed did’nt work. I figured that out I am also a member of great losing crowd. So I placed the question. What the 90% of the traders are doing wrong? If I could answer to this question I might be in the 10%. So for one or two years I just had read blogs, comments, trading ideas to figure the answer out. And finally I did that. When I had the answers it was like coming out from the darkness to the light. All the time it was at right in my face the answer but I could’nt see that.

So here are my anwers for tha question:

 - They are overpositioned often times. They take too big postions because they are greedy, they can not imagine that any position can turn into loss. Shortly they are too greedy. I am still greedy but not supergreedy.

 - They use too big leverages - 1:50 or 1:100, Normally I use no more than 1:2 or max 1:3

 - They do’nt cut the shit. They are sitting in a losing position and hoping that the markets turns around, maybe it turns and they are lucky, but it is enough only one time when the market does’nt recover, and they blow up the account. I use each day my priority rule: Cut the loss and let the win ride”

 - They do’nt let the winning postion going far. In this situation they are scared. Only with few points gain take the profit. But on the losing side they leave it for tens or hundred points. What I try to do is following the market if get started any trend.

 - If they lose they increase the size of the position. I guess  so if you are in cold streak you have to reduce the size of the position because you are mentally beaten. Why they increase? Beacuse they want to get back the loss asap. This is more personal by that time making revenge, vendetta on the market. They want to show the market they are smarter. Personally I do believe the market is much smarter tha me, beacuse he never do mistakes.

 - They are overtrading. They want to be all the time in the market, because they beleive if they are flat they are losing money.

 - They are listening on some gurus or tv analysis, or their broker tips. My rule is that “Never lissen to anybody” Because it is your money not their money, giving advice is very cheap, trading it cost so much.

 So guys, these are biggest mistakes. But left one another issue why is the 6 months?  I have to tell that I have never met any guy who was lost his money within a year or 2 years, because it is impossible. ou will lose it within 6month or you lose never. If you have a wrong money management system you will lose within 6 months, you wont live more than 6months. My personal recorder at one company I worked for was a guy who lost all his 150k euro within 4hours. He is my guiness recorder.

Finally what is the lesson from the whole article. That we have to watch only the losers and do the opposite what they do. That’s simple.

I made mistakes a lot, I did it too this errors, I am a human being too. But I learned how not to do stupid things anymore. My trading god tells me each day right into my ears - follow your money management system - which means “cut the loss and let the win ride”.

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