Blindfoldedmonkey: WHAT BRINGS THE RABBIT? MIGHT BE RALLY...

Monday 21 April 2014

WHAT BRINGS THE RABBIT? MIGHT BE RALLY...

Personally I don’t believe in any seasonality because it is the explanation of lazy traders, they think there is one easy method which works always. I doubt that. The market is more complex that one rule could work forever. This Easter pattern is the same same story, sometimes works and many times doesn’t.


But as some analysts states the Easter holiday is a bullish signal for the market. That means if the market in positive territory at Easter’s days the year is going to be bullish for the rest of the year.


This historical and statistical matrix created by Schaeffer’s Investment Research. They say if “The years when the index is positive through Easter average a return of nearly 10% for the rest of the year, and have been positive an impressive 90% of the time and what about if the index is negative for the year at Easter? “Over the past 30 years when the S&P 500 is down heading into Easter, the index averages a loss of 2% for the rest of the year and is positive just half of the time.”

But remember for the great rule that the past performance is definitely no indicator of future results. But this year could work this method. Why? Because the market after many weeks of ranging and choppy stressful period finally got closer to break out levels. As Dennis Gartman says only three positions you can possible have on the bull market.

  • Very bullish 
  • Slightly bullish or 
  • Neutral 

Recently we are at first stage and extremely bullish because this is a bull market. I am always fascinated when I read the forums like I did yesterday and 99% of traders talking about more severe possible corrections and expecting those always by the following week. Wake up guys! It won’t come any big correction – we had already on Nasdaq so far 10% in the last couple of weeks and now the market wants to go up further. So don’t sell the dips, but buy them.

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The BFM Assets Team.

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