BIG PICTURE ABOUT THE MARKET. BUBBLE OR NO BUBBLE?

I am fully convinced we are not yet in bubble. Doesn’t look like this.

Why? I have some arguments here below:

• Most of individuals still remain sceptical about the market 
• On the investors side happens now the following. Investors slowly turn bullish. They see each day in the TV the market is doing new highs again and again. The prices are steadily rising. Pros like analysts and strategists are also get started being "bullish". 
• We are now at breakout. Look at the chart below. The SP500 was in a huge range area for more than 13 years. Between point 1999 and 2013 the stock market made no progress at all. This summer from that range broke out the SP500. After 13 years of consolidation I wouldn’t say this is a bubble.

What needs to happen to see a bubble. We clearly need to be in the phase 3, which means the followings:

• The market participants become ecstatic. 
• This euphoria is driven by rising prices. 
• The belief will be common that the market is a "no risk opportunity.” 
• If some fundamentals start arguing with the bullish sentiment, investors say "this time is different." 
• The media covered by the stock market news 
• Bad news is ignored 

So my bet is we are still in the phase 2 not in the 3.

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The BFM Assets Team.