The
condition of the economy really effects on the stock exchange performance and
vice-versa? Normally the answer is yes, but what we have seen in the last 4
years seems does’nt exist anymore this corelation. But never forget it needs to
exist on long term and here I have collected together some remarkable datas,
which prove the theory.
Temporarly
the macroeconomy and markets could go on different way as we see now(chart by
Barclay’s)
If I need
to say one argument why is that, I would say - THE CHEAP MONEY. After the
turmoil of 2008, Bernanke and the FED hoped that the rising asset prices
creates the “wealth effect" which encourages the avarage american citizen
to spend more and more and leave the recession behind. The “wealth effect"
is an empirical relationship between the markets and economy, the increasing
asset prices increases the spending of customers which effect on the pruductivity
of the country and on the output. Some experts argue this effect, included A.
Greenspan. He is fully concerned about that the stock market drives the
economy. That is a very remarkable statement, I have to agree with that. So we
will see that on the long term which is wrong, the economy or the market,
literally which our data does’nt represent the reality - S&P or GDP. At the
same time they need to be both right, but now one of them does’nt show real
performance.
Technical
side of S&P500 trading:
On
S&P500, we saw last week nice gain, which hopes continues this week. The market
made break out at 1610 and our target is 1650, still we have almost 20points,
and after we have to look again what next.
Our
daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from
10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY
FREE OF CHARGE!
No comments:
Post a Comment