Blindfoldedmonkey: July 2013

Monday, 29 July 2013

Cable intraday scenario

From the UK today we have some news like M4 Money Supply and Net Lending for Individuals. Those reports could affect on the GBPUSD rate. Our bet is for today is a short side move. We will have many short sell oportunities today, mostly after the news coming out. We sold at 1,5383 the cross and hope for a sharp short rally to 1,5353 support level. This support should be broken today and then the outlook remains negative and could hit the big support area at 1.5280. If the downside strength still intact.


YOU WANT EARN OVER 30% PER YEAR?

Invest into our fully regulated swiss fund: http://blindfoldedmonkey.webs.com/our-fund

Friday, 26 July 2013

EURUSD trading idea - behing the dollar wekness

The Dollar Index fell since 10th July steadily, this is now the third-straight weekly decline. The greenback currency has weakened versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts in the last week. Last week Bernanke told Congress hat any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance. So we still predicting further dollar weakness against the majors and specially versus euro.
We are long on bigger frame. Our target is 1,3400.

FOREX TRADING ROOM:
Only 3€ per day!
Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: ”Blindfoldedmonkey”

Jim Rogers Interview

Great interview with the legendary Jim Rogers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT_tGXtUxK8#at=81

Thursday, 25 July 2013

Aussi long scenario

Markets never go straight up or straight down". Jesse Livermore

After more than three weeks consolidation of AUDUSD, now shows the pair upside strength. Nice buy opportunity we see recently and could come a nice long rally in the following days.
 First should be broken 0.9306 key resistance level. And, there is on the chart a reversal head and shoulder pattern. This bullish movement could be supported by the general weakness of American Dollar. Couple of days the realistic target is 0.9550. Our stop loss at 0.9120.

 

FOREX TRADING ROOM:

Only 3€ per day!
Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: ”Blindfoldedmonkey”
http://blindfoldedmonkey.webs.com/trading-room

Wednesday, 24 July 2013

USDCHF technical outlook

"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end." Jesse Livermore
For today might be long opportunities on this cross - which means sell option on EURUSD simultaniously. Yesterday the pair was pushed sharply lower close to the big resistance line at 0,9323. In the last two days traded only under 0,9394 area and so far has not been able to break out from this range. But the sentiment has changed during the night and this morning. Stabilized after the yesterday slight dipping.


The weakness of the dollar seems over. So today on USDCHF could be a good entry for long. Now traded the cross at 0,9364 and the next big resistance line is at 0,9395. If this zone if taken out will turn focus to the 0,9465 level. It should be broken still today.

FOREX TRADING ROOM:
Only 3€ per day!
Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: ”Blindfoldedmonkey”

Monday, 22 July 2013

Richard Donchian and his channels

The Donchian channels are perfect for lazy traders, like myself. This is a great feature of computerisation, we don’t need to draw manually any more the support and resistance levels, The DC does instead of us. Many decades ago all the traders - mostly technicians - needed to do that manually, but nowadays it is a great support by most of trading platforms. This channels show us clearly and easily the highest high and lowest low points. On H1 chart - see below - if you set up 24, you might see the last 24 hours lowest and highest levels, which mostly indicates the support and resistance levels. So it is so practical and smooth, just look quickly on the chart and you see the highest and lowest prices in the last 24 hours. You don’t need to draw lines anymore manually. Basically the Turtle Traders used and still use thousands of traders his DC channels to identify the breakouts. Commonly used by trend followers, likeTurtle Traders they set for DC22 breakout, and close at DC11 if turns the market.


 The Donchian Channel - DC - invented by Richard Donchian. He used to be a commodity and future trader and passed away twenty years ago. He was - as many of us - was fascinated by Livermore book, the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. After 1929, the Great Crash, he started to analyze technically the market and became of the pioneer of technical analysis - started to study the price histories. He became one of the first market technician. Barbara Dixon, one of his students, observed how he computed his moving averages, posted his own charts by hand, and developed his market signals without the benefit of an accurate database, software, or any computing capability. His jacket pockets were always loaded down with pencils and a pencil sharpener
In the 70s he was managing $27 million at American Express making $1 million a year in fees and commissions and another million in trading profits on his own money. He was a really profitable trader with 90% hit rate.
Basically he was rather a trend follower and used the moving avarages (5/20) as well as an entry/exit indicator. In the Post World War period he served as a teacher and mentor to thousands of traders and publicated monthly basis his ideas about the market. Still today his works has huge number of followers. Maybe you are not aware of that, but everybody of us more or less trend followers, so basically we all follow his all time rules.



My favorite is statement from Donchian is the following as William Baldwin said an interview to Forbes:
He didn’t predict price movements, he just followed them. His explanation for his success was simple and as old as the “Dow Theory" itself: “Trends persist.”A lot of people say things like: Gold has got to come down. It went up too fast. That’s why 85 percent of commodities investors lose money," he says. He was never distracted from his system. “The fundamentals are supposed to be bullish in copper," he says. “But I’m on the short side now because the trend is down."
Here youcould find more rules from him, Ed Seykota collected some together from his first book:
FOREX TRADING ROOM:
Only 3€ per day!
Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: ”Blindfoldedmonkey”

Thursday, 18 July 2013

Read Bernanke’s lips

That was a common activity yesterday by the traders, and market participants. After Bernanke’s testimony at the Congress the EURUSD pair made significant moves and gave us clear information about which way dollar wants go. Big Ben has opened the door to a delay in reducing the FED bond buying program. Bernanke doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to taper in QE it seems. Another fascinating development was in terms of indexes. Instead of this great news, in interpretation of market, the indexes hasn’t gain much. After 9 days of rally at SP500 stopped a bit the bull track.




In our view the EURUSD made a Bull Trap yesterday afternoon at 1.3177, it seemed first the pair wants to go up, but that was a trap for long traders. Shortly after started the dollar strentghening and came off the course of EURUSD. In our interpretation in the last one week the pair was not able to close above the 1.3200 and lost fully the upside momentum. Tried to test it twice - please look at the red arrows - but couldn’t succeed. So the long battle has failed. Comes for a while the bears on EURUSD we are expecting that, is sure for today.





IS YOUR BROKER ON YOUR SIDE?

If you are looking for ECN broker - without Dealing Desk - you can open account here:
http://blindfoldedmonkey.webs.com/why-we-trade-with-hantec

(Get 1 month free membership in our daily Trading Room with a real account opening through our website link)

Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Which way EURUSD?

This afternoon Big Ben speaks again, Bernanke testifies at 4PM at the Hill. Yesterday was long on the EURUSD, but I would say really nothing happened just gained slightlythe pair. The market waits for the news today from the Congress. The one million dollar question is still. Tapering or not tapering? My bet is that nothing going to change during the summer, but for sure FED will do tapering in the fall, and I am onlyinterested at the interpretation of market not the analysts. We do believe that the Comitee will slow the monetary stimulus, is 100% sure. The only question is in which month starts. The consensus on the market is for the Fed to taper quantitative easing in September.

We see dollar weakening and wait the greenback against the euro to 1.3380 in twoweekly term. Technically on daily chart yesterday tested the 1.3050 level and bounced back up to 1,3170. We have a double bottom 1.2755 that is still a huge resistance. We see upside strength and our target is at 1.3380, but before that needs the EURUSD to break the 1.3200 resistance today after the Bernanke speech.



FOREX TRADING ROOM:
Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: ”Blindfoldedmonkey”

Tuesday, 16 July 2013

EURUSD forecast for today

Yesterday after the US data the market plunged a bit and then later recovered. After three days of consolidation since last Thursday the pair most likely is still bullish. Yesterday only hitted a key support at 1.2990 and then rebounded again, butyesterday was pretty unspectacular. Today we will have ZEW index from Germany andCore CPI from US. The confidence in the better german data might give support to Euro. So it means more choppier day we are expecting. Our expectation is a steep bullish trend for today. There is a key support upside level at 1.3130. If it breaks our next TP is 1.3200.



Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: “Blindfoldedmonkey”

Monday, 15 July 2013

Earning season starts

Let’s see how effects on the indexes. My bet is that makes a bitchoppy, but pushes up to upside. The bottom line is that all US indexes closed last week at new all-time highs. The Russel new historical record shows how broad and deep the positive sentiment on US markets.


Technically the S&P500 made last week a breakout at 1670 and stays steadily above this level, so might be couple of consolidation day and try to backtest the 1670 level. But generally the bulls are ruling the market. And, what we should do on the bull market - BUY IT AND DON’T SELL IT.
My only concern is the macro effect. I know we have seen this pattern continuously in the last four years couple of time, but it makes sense how big is the gap between the reality and market performance. My question is to you, if everything is great why Bernanke needs to save US each month? Basically the US economy second worstperforming macro-economy of the year between the majors. This chart shows obviously the fact on macros, (chart by Zerohedge)




Our forex workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey

Friday, 12 July 2013

Higher and higher…

S&P500 and Dow rallied yesterday again, better if we say has rallied in the last six days in row. This song is more actual than ever:
- by Mr. Excitement, Jackie Wilson
The sentiment is extremely bullish, in Asia, US and Europe, cross the world. Yesterdaydata: Dow +1.11%, S&P500 +1.35%, Nasdaq 1.63%. All investors cooled down and set into RISK ON mood, after Bernanke said on Wendesday the FED remainaccommodative. Basically Bernanke did not say anything new, just opened his mouth, it tells me the market not concerned so much anymore about the QE. The market is pricing in now the tapering of QE program.
On Wendesday was released of minutes from the central bank’s last meeting. Where 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee looking to cut the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchase program by the end of the year. So this information is broadly known, so if the fact will come out in November or December nobody will be surprised. That is a smart tactics by FED.


Technically as I said last week we had a break out on S&P500 at 1610, and after came up to the first resistance 1650 and yesterday made a new breakout at 1670. Now is opened the air. Whre is the end of the rally. I don’t have the faintest idea, what I only know this is a BULL MARKET. Andhow to trade the bull market. Be really bullish, kind of bullish or neutral. DON’T SELL because you believe that you are smarter than the market.

Thursday, 11 July 2013

EURUSD scenarios

The greenback currency declined against most of its peers. Last night after a so quite European trading session, the dollar started to weaken strongly. The dollar index tumbled after Bernankesaid the US economy still needs stimulus because the inflation and the unemployment rate show the weakness of US economy. This yesterday meeting can affect on longer term on the dollar, so today we are going to have a very choppy day. What we see now the 20 days dollar strengthening period is over by now.
The greenback currency declined against most of its peers. Last night after a so quite European trading session, the dollar started to weaken strongly. The dollar index tumbled after Bernankesaid the US economy still needs stimulus because the inflation and the unemployment rate show the weakness of US economy. This yesterday meeting can affect on longer term on the dollar, so today we are going to have a very choppy day. What we see now the 20 days dollar strengthening period is over by now.




Technically the EURUSD could make today correction back test the 1.3000 level, but after could recover again, I bet on the bullish trend until end of this month.


Our trading workshop on skype each day. 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris) Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”,
IT’IS FREE OF CHARGE!

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

RISK ON mood

What can be said here that we haven’t said before about the S&P500 bullish attitude? Hard question, but I try it again. As I forecasted last week the S&P500 reached this morning our target price 1650 area. Here must be some hesitation, because this is a resistance level. It could take 1-2 days the choppy mood. Might be some back test on the short side, but generally pretty bullish the indeces. Nikkei made this night +2,58% and europeans are in positive territory this morning. The investors after the few weeks weakining coming back and turn into RISK ON mood. There is apetite for risk again. 






Here is a Goldman forecast for S&P500 till 2015. I am sure that they do’nt have crystal ball, so be sceptical about this, it is only one opinion, might be a big fish’s opinion but just one opinion,. That’s it.
The year end target is 1750. Let’s see. Any bets guys?



Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!


Monday, 8 July 2013

Market vs Macros

The condition of the economy really effects on the stock exchange performance and vice-versa? Normally the answer is yes, but what we have seen in the last 4 years seems does’nt exist anymore this corelation. But never forget it needs to exist on long term and here I have collected together some remarkable datas, which prove the theory.
Temporarly the macroeconomy and markets could go on different way as we see now(chart by Barclay’s)




If I need to say one argument why is that, I would say - THE CHEAP MONEY. After the turmoil of 2008, Bernanke and the FED hoped that the rising asset prices creates the “wealth effect" which encourages the avarage american citizen to spend more and more and leave the recession behind. The “wealth effect" is an empirical relationship between the markets and economy, the increasing asset prices increases the spending of customers which effect on the pruductivity of the country and on the output. Some experts argue this effect, included A. Greenspan. He is fully concerned about that the stock market drives the economy. That is a very remarkable statement, I have to agree with that. So we will see that on the long term which is wrong, the economy or the market, literally which our data does’nt represent the reality - S&P or GDP. At the same time they need to be both right, but now one of them does’nt show real performance.
Technical side of S&P500 trading:

                            

On S&P500, we saw last week nice gain, which hopes continues this week. The market made break out at 1610 and our target is 1650, still we have almost 20points, and after we have to look again what next.

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)

IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

Thursday, 4 July 2013

US bank holiday and the indeces

Today US celebrates Independent day, so the volatiliy gonna be much lower, anyway tha market waits for Friday’s Job data. Since 24th of June we are in nice bullish pace, with only 2 correction days. During the night Asia bounced back again, they are over 1% generally, Hang Seng +1,46%, Sidney made +1,07%. The optimism was not on Nikkei it went down a bit. Everybody keens on the nonfarm payroll report on friday, Which give us clear indication of the market’s direction.

Technically the S&P500 made break out  - on daily chart - 2 days ago from the long term sell correction at 1610, now the way is empty to go up to 1650. This is the optimistic scenario, but my bet it is the realistic.



I found some very interesting charts from Barclays.
In the history of US markets since March 2009, S&P 500 made the 6. longest rally in the last 113 years, and made during this period 127% gain. 
First chart about the how long is our current bullish rally:


Second chart about the performance:


Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

Tuesday, 2 July 2013

We started the cooperation with Forexcrunch

One of the most popular forex portal www.forexcrunch.com also started to publicate our articles. This is our newest one: http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurjpy-daily-and-weekly-outlook/www.forexcrunch.com also started to publicate our articles. This is our newest one: http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurjpy-daily-and-weekly-outlook/

Forex Workshop

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

EURJPY short option


After a nice run on EURJPY we see now some signals of correction, so we sold the pair at 129,93, SL 130.25 TP 129,05.

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!


GBPUSD buy

Since last friday there has been a concolidation on cable wothout new lows. So we bought the pair at 1,5230, SL 1,5200 TP 1,5274.

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

Bullish indeces?

Yes they are. It seems finally after few weeks the S&P closed above the key resistance of 1611. What it exactly mean, namely we have a big area on the upside to 1651, to the first serious resistance. The bears has been hibernated in the last few days. In the June monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch “Sell Side Indicator” recommending that investors keep 49.8% of their portfolio in stocks. Historically means, if the Sell Side Indicator is below 50, as it is now, the U.S. market’s return was positive 100% of the time, with median 12-month gains of 30%.

I found an intersting chart, published by Deutche Bank:

Shows the YTD performances in major assets. On equities obvious the Nikkei, S&P and DAX good performance, suffering IBEX, Greece Index, Bovespa as emerging market shows massive weakness. In terms of commodities, the winner is the Crude Oil, the Brent has made worser performance, it is negative territory against the WTI, and as we saw in the last year the biggest loss was on gold and silver. Wheat and copper also suffered in the last year. So except the WTI the commodity market is dead. That is a sense, that the commodity boom which was in the media in the last decade it seems to me, is over.
Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

Monday, 1 July 2013

Today PMI’s

PMI datas by countries:
  • Ireland 50.3: 4-month high
  • Spain 50.0: 26-month high
  • Italy 49.1: 23-month high
  • Netherlands 48.8: 4-month high
  • France 48.4: (flash 48.3) 16-month high
  • Austria 48.3: 4-month high
  • Greece 45.4: 24-month high
  • Germany 48.6 (flash 48.7): 2-month low
All of them are new highs, only german PMI is disapponting a bit, this can be a good signal to the market till friday (US unemployment data)
Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

USDCAD bullish?

We are not sure about that of course….we can’t predict the future as Burton Malkiel says in the Random Walk theory, but we have to test it. So after the friday big upside move, that was a backtest in early morning today, and recovered and it is signal for us take position on the long side. We bought at 1,3727, SL 1,0505, TP 1,0550

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!

Indeces for this week

Might be firework this week on the market…We will see clear picture about the direction of US indeces by the end of the week. Today morning we had PMI from China and during the day we gonna have from some european countries. On friday going to be unemployment rate data from US, which will give us clear indication about how FED sees the developments in macros.
This morning Far East made some gains, Nikkei +1,28%, Hang Seng is +1,78%, so in the last few days and today the asia session gave us more bullish sentiment on the market generally, except of some disappointing companies like, Apple or Blackberry, they both made significant loss on friday.

Techinically, the S&P500, seems that it has broken out from downside correction, last week, we still have a resistance at 1612, if it is overwritten today the field is opened to 1651 area.

Our daytrading workshop on skype. Name: „Blindfoldedmonkey”, from 10:30-16:00(GMT+1, Paris)
IT’IS FULLY FREE OF CHARGE!