Blindfoldedmonkey

Monday, 29 July 2013

Cable intraday scenario

From the UK today we have some news like M4 Money Supply and Net Lending for Individuals. Those reports could affect on the GBPUSD rate. Our bet is for today is a short side move. We will have many short sell oportunities today, mostly after the news coming out. We sold at 1,5383 the cross and hope for a sharp short rally to 1,5353 support level. This support should be broken today and then the outlook remains negative and could hit the big support area at 1.5280. If the downside strength still intact.


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Friday, 26 July 2013

EURUSD trading idea - behing the dollar wekness

The Dollar Index fell since 10th July steadily, this is now the third-straight weekly decline. The greenback currency has weakened versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts in the last week. Last week Bernanke told Congress hat any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance. So we still predicting further dollar weakness against the majors and specially versus euro.
We are long on bigger frame. Our target is 1,3400.

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Jim Rogers Interview

Great interview with the legendary Jim Rogers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT_tGXtUxK8#at=81

Thursday, 25 July 2013

Aussi long scenario

Markets never go straight up or straight down". Jesse Livermore

After more than three weeks consolidation of AUDUSD, now shows the pair upside strength. Nice buy opportunity we see recently and could come a nice long rally in the following days.
 First should be broken 0.9306 key resistance level. And, there is on the chart a reversal head and shoulder pattern. This bullish movement could be supported by the general weakness of American Dollar. Couple of days the realistic target is 0.9550. Our stop loss at 0.9120.

 

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Wednesday, 24 July 2013

USDCHF technical outlook

"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end." Jesse Livermore
For today might be long opportunities on this cross - which means sell option on EURUSD simultaniously. Yesterday the pair was pushed sharply lower close to the big resistance line at 0,9323. In the last two days traded only under 0,9394 area and so far has not been able to break out from this range. But the sentiment has changed during the night and this morning. Stabilized after the yesterday slight dipping.


The weakness of the dollar seems over. So today on USDCHF could be a good entry for long. Now traded the cross at 0,9364 and the next big resistance line is at 0,9395. If this zone if taken out will turn focus to the 0,9465 level. It should be broken still today.

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Monday, 22 July 2013

Richard Donchian and his channels

The Donchian channels are perfect for lazy traders, like myself. This is a great feature of computerisation, we don’t need to draw manually any more the support and resistance levels, The DC does instead of us. Many decades ago all the traders - mostly technicians - needed to do that manually, but nowadays it is a great support by most of trading platforms. This channels show us clearly and easily the highest high and lowest low points. On H1 chart - see below - if you set up 24, you might see the last 24 hours lowest and highest levels, which mostly indicates the support and resistance levels. So it is so practical and smooth, just look quickly on the chart and you see the highest and lowest prices in the last 24 hours. You don’t need to draw lines anymore manually. Basically the Turtle Traders used and still use thousands of traders his DC channels to identify the breakouts. Commonly used by trend followers, likeTurtle Traders they set for DC22 breakout, and close at DC11 if turns the market.


 The Donchian Channel - DC - invented by Richard Donchian. He used to be a commodity and future trader and passed away twenty years ago. He was - as many of us - was fascinated by Livermore book, the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. After 1929, the Great Crash, he started to analyze technically the market and became of the pioneer of technical analysis - started to study the price histories. He became one of the first market technician. Barbara Dixon, one of his students, observed how he computed his moving averages, posted his own charts by hand, and developed his market signals without the benefit of an accurate database, software, or any computing capability. His jacket pockets were always loaded down with pencils and a pencil sharpener
In the 70s he was managing $27 million at American Express making $1 million a year in fees and commissions and another million in trading profits on his own money. He was a really profitable trader with 90% hit rate.
Basically he was rather a trend follower and used the moving avarages (5/20) as well as an entry/exit indicator. In the Post World War period he served as a teacher and mentor to thousands of traders and publicated monthly basis his ideas about the market. Still today his works has huge number of followers. Maybe you are not aware of that, but everybody of us more or less trend followers, so basically we all follow his all time rules.



My favorite is statement from Donchian is the following as William Baldwin said an interview to Forbes:
He didn’t predict price movements, he just followed them. His explanation for his success was simple and as old as the “Dow Theory" itself: “Trends persist.”A lot of people say things like: Gold has got to come down. It went up too fast. That’s why 85 percent of commodities investors lose money," he says. He was never distracted from his system. “The fundamentals are supposed to be bullish in copper," he says. “But I’m on the short side now because the trend is down."
Here youcould find more rules from him, Ed Seykota collected some together from his first book:
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Thursday, 18 July 2013

Read Bernanke’s lips

That was a common activity yesterday by the traders, and market participants. After Bernanke’s testimony at the Congress the EURUSD pair made significant moves and gave us clear information about which way dollar wants go. Big Ben has opened the door to a delay in reducing the FED bond buying program. Bernanke doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to taper in QE it seems. Another fascinating development was in terms of indexes. Instead of this great news, in interpretation of market, the indexes hasn’t gain much. After 9 days of rally at SP500 stopped a bit the bull track.




In our view the EURUSD made a Bull Trap yesterday afternoon at 1.3177, it seemed first the pair wants to go up, but that was a trap for long traders. Shortly after started the dollar strentghening and came off the course of EURUSD. In our interpretation in the last one week the pair was not able to close above the 1.3200 and lost fully the upside momentum. Tried to test it twice - please look at the red arrows - but couldn’t succeed. So the long battle has failed. Comes for a while the bears on EURUSD we are expecting that, is sure for today.





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